China’s Local-Government Off-Balance-Sheet Debt and Regional Financial Risk
Data construction, econometric modeling, and policy-scenario analysis
Research question and context
How can we characterize the scale and growth dynamics of China’s local-government off-balance-sheet debt and investigate its relationship to regional financial risk?
As a Research & Teaching Assistant at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management from September 2023 to September 2024, I conducted research on this question under Prof. Ji Shen.
Data construction
The study used 2011–2022 China data from ICBC, Ping An, and other institutions. My contribution included data cleaning, indicator construction, and robustness checks. I also used Bloomberg and S&P Capital IQ for cross-market data collection and comparable analysis.
Modeling approach
I built ARIMA and multivariate regression models to study debt dynamics and support scenario analysis. The work connected quantitative estimates with the policy assumptions needed to interpret a forward-looking debt trajectory.
Scenario result
Under the study’s policy scenario, the models estimated approximately 8% average annual debt growth over five years. This was a conditional model result, not an observed growth rate or an unconditional forecast for China’s local-government debt.
Limitations and interpretation
The estimate depends on the study’s data definitions, historical sample, model specification, and policy assumptions. It should be read as scenario analysis within that research setting. This page summarizes my contribution as described in my public resume; it does not reproduce unpublished research materials, datasets, or model specifications.